Sunday, September 6, 2009

Weather Forecast

A pre-race ritual for me is to begin checking the long range weather forecast for race day. Over the years, I have come to realize that the 20, 15 or even 10 day forecast is not very accurate. I could be even more critical and say the 48 hour forecast is not reliable. However, I keep checking in hope of finding the numbers I want. I have already entered the "zip" codes for Schenectady and Albany, NY into my computer. When I do find a "perfect" forecast, I only have to wait 24 hours to find the revised numbers have jumped by 15 degrees. How did that happen? Then they shift back to the "perfect" numbers. Along with the numbers, I see the description, "partly cloudy", "mostly cloudy", "sunny", and on and on. Various combinations for me to contemplate for a period of 30 days. Then it boils, (no pun intended), down to the night before and hopefully an accurate forecast. Shouldn't the "AccuWeather" forecast be accurate? Or maybe "Accu" doesn't really stand for accurate.

My training and planning can and does account for the many different facets of a marathon. The one thing I have no control over is the weather. So, why stress over something you have no control over? Maybe it is a method to not become complacent. I will be running my marathon 5 weeks from today. Soon, I will begin my quest for the perfect weather forecast for October 11th.

The photo accompanying this post is of a thermometer prior to the 2008 Mohawk-Hudson Marathon. "Official" race time temperature was 44 degrees. Oh, to have a repeat of the conditions from last year!


Runner's Anonymous said...

It will be a partly cloudy day with temperatures at the start in the upper 30's and rising to the upper 50's to low 60's by the afternoon. Expect 5-10 mph breeze which will make temps feel more like the low 30's at the start and mid 50's by the afternoon. If you are racing in a low lying area there is the chance that you'll see a light frost on the ground in the morning. Dpn't plan on running in a singlet...brrrrr!

Based on over 30 years of experience with Upstate/Central NY weather this forecast has a 75% chance of being accurate for this time of year. Let's see how close I come.

Jim said...

I'll take it! I ran Chicago at 37 degrees in a long sleeved tech shirt and shorts. Did wear gloves and a stocking cap. In fact, I wore gloves last year at M-H. If my hands are warm, I'm warm!

Maddy said...

You ran Chicago at 37 degrees, and I ran Chicago at 86 degrees.

You gotta love the midwest in October. But proof that you never know what kind of weather you can expect.

Here's to cool temps and speedy feet!

ShirleyPerly said...

Yes, weather is something you can't control. That's why I like the indoor marathons :-)

Hope your race day is cool, dry and not too windy!

Jade Lady said...

haha..i'm the same way when it comes to going to ANY event. Hope it wasn't too cold for the race!